Climate Attribution Science Gains Maturity, Raising Liability Risks for Fossil Fuel Industry

The US National Academies of Science (NAS) released a report on Thursday stating that climate attribution science—the process of determining if specific weather disasters were made more likely by climate change—has become increasingly mature and mainstream.

According to reporting from Ars Technica, the NAS found that the field has seen significant growth over the last decade. This progress is attributed to expanded observational datasets, more sophisticated numerical models, advanced machine-learning and statistical techniques, and a deeper physical understanding of atmospheric conditions. The report highlights two primary frameworks used in the field: "probabilistic" analysis, which examines how climate change alters the odds of an event, and "storyline" analysis, which focuses on the specific atmospheric conditions of an event, such as tropical cyclones.

While the NAS notes that limitations remain—specifically a lack of consistent historical weather data from the pre-satellite era—the report suggests the science can now answer questions with far greater confidence than it could ten years ago.

This scientific advancement has created significant friction with the fossil fuel industry. Ars Technica reports that the industry views the maturation of attribution science as a problem because it could simplify the process of holding companies liable for climate-related damages. This concern has led to a political backlash, with state governments and Republicans in Congress threatening the funding of the National Academies.