Verifact Markets Launches Prediction Platform for 'Disputed Facts'

A new startup called Verifact Markets is attempting to pivot the prediction market model by allowing users to trade on "disputed facts" rather than future events, as Wired first reported.

Launched on Friday, the platform enables participants to wager "true" or "false" on historical controversies. Initial offerings include the origins of Covid-19, whether Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide, and whether State Farm intentionally delayed claims regarding the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. Wired reports that during beta testing for the Covid-19 market, "true" was priced at 76 cents and "false" at 32 cents.

Tech investor Peter Wokwicz is funding and incubating the company through his family office, Positron Capital Management. Wokwicz stated he intends to use the platform to settle debates on issues such as AI data center energy consumption and noted he plans to eventually roll the startup into a regulated financial exchange he purchased within the last year.

Chief executive and cofounder Rodrigo Aquino told Wired that the markets themselves do not determine truth. Instead, the company will factor in trading prices alongside user-submitted evidence and a "patent pending" research system that Aquino described as "very mathematical" and "very secretive." If Verifact cannot determine a result, it will "expire" the market and pay users based on calculated odds.

Currently, the platform is "on-chain," allowing trades via stablecoins. Because it is not a licensed exchange in the U.S., Verifact is only offering its markets to individuals outside the United States while it evaluates legal paths for domestic operation.