Gartner Predicts Majority of VMware Users Will Probe Exits by 2029
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While Broadcom's VMware remains a technical leader, rising costs and complex licensing are driving enterprises toward a risky migration landscape.
A significant shift is coming to the hybrid cloud market. According to reporting from The Register, analyst firm Gartner predicts that by 2029, 55% of enterprises will initiate proofs of concept for alternative distributed hybrid infrastructure products to replace VMware-based deployments. This is a sharp increase from the 25% projected for 2026.
Despite the exodus, Gartner continues to rate the Broadcom-owned business unit as a technical leader in server virtualization and distributed hybrid infrastructure, citing strengths in AI-native infrastructure and sovereign cloud ecosystems. However, the firm reports significant negative customer sentiment regarding Broadcom's commercial business practices, support delays, and the cost increases associated with the transition to per-core subscriptions.
For enterprises auditing their options, the alternatives present their own operational hurdles. Gartner warns that Nutanix users face complex licensing and pricing that frequently exceeds expectations, prompting a need for careful ROI evaluation. Microsoft users must navigate multiple disjointed management consoles—including System Center Virtual Machine Manager, Windows Admin Center, and Azure Portal—for routine tasks. Additionally, AWS on-prem Local Zones carry substantial cost premiums, ranging from 15% to 35% over parent regions in expensive metros.
Other market entrants face maturity gaps. Gartner labeled HPE a "Challenger" due to a lack of a proven track record and missing features, while Proxmox was designated a "Niche Player" because of uncertain support availability and a lack of support for top-tier enterprise applications. Nutanix CEO Rajiv Ramaswami has noted that it may take several years before some customers are ready to migrate.