Gartner Predicts Surge in VMware Exit Evaluations by 2029

A significant portion of enterprise VMware users are expected to investigate alternative hybrid cloud platforms over the next few years, according to reporting from The Register. Analyst firm Gartner predicts that by 2029, 55% of enterprises will initiate proofs of concept to replace VMware-based deployments, a sharp increase from the 25% projected for 2026.

While Gartner continues to rate the Broadcom business unit as a leader in server virtualization and distributed hybrid infrastructure (DHI), it highlights a rise in negative customer sentiment. Specifically, Gartner notes concerns regarding commercial business practices, communication, and support delays. The transition to per-core subscriptions has led to significant cost increases and limited negotiation flexibility, prompting many heads of infrastructure and operations (I&O) to seek alternatives.

However, migrating remains a complex and risky endeavor. Nutanix CEO Rajiv Ramaswami has indicated that some organizations may not be ready to move for several years. Furthermore, Gartner warns that alternative providers face their own hurdles. Nutanix has been cited for complex licensing and pricing that can exceed expectations, while AWS's on-prem Local Zones carry substantial cost premiums. Microsoft users may face operational friction due to disjointed management consoles, and Proxmox is categorized as a "Niche Player" due to limited support for top-tier enterprise applications.

Despite these challenges, the 2029 timeline is seen as a critical juncture, as many users who signed three-year subscriptions following Broadcom's acquisition of VMware will reach the end of their terms.