EU Chip Investments Fail to Solve US Cloud Dependency

Brussels is investing heavily in domestic semiconductor production to achieve technological independence, but these efforts are unlikely to break the region's reliance on U.S. tech giants, according to reporting from The Register.

In its first Global Sovereignty Forecast, analyst firm Forrester notes that while the European Chips Act aims for the bloc to produce 20% of the world's semiconductors by 2030, the firm projects Europe will only reach 11.3%. Furthermore, Forrester points out that Europe currently designs only about 1% of global chips and lacks domestic equivalents to Qualcomm or Nvidia.

The broader technology stack remains dominated by U.S. providers. AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud currently control approximately 65% of the European cloud market. While these hyperscalers have introduced "sovereign cloud" offerings with distinct operational controls, Forrester argues these remain subsidiaries of U.S. companies, meaning ultimate ownership does not reside in Europe.

Forrester's Tech Sovereignty Index highlights a massive gap in autonomy. The U.S. and China lead with sovereignty scores of 79% and 82%, respectively. In contrast, Europe's largest economies show minimal growth through 2030: Germany and Spain are projected to rise to 36%, France to 35%, the UK to 32%, and Italy to 29%.

Dario Maisto, principal analyst at Forrester, suggests that because total self-sufficiency is unlikely, nations should instead focus on managing dependencies through selective investment and open technologies. He notes that concentrated tech sovereignty creates an "uneven competitive advantage" in the AI era.