USC's Penn State Win Masks Playoff Uncertainty
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Despite a 31-23 victory over the Nittany Lions, analytical projections suggest the No. 19 Trojans face a steep climb to the CFP.
The No. 19 USC Trojans, led by head coach Lincoln Riley, secured a 31-23 victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 6, but the win has not moved the needle in the latest AP Top-25 poll, as Sports Illustrated first reported. While the Trojans hold a 6-1 record and enter a bye week, Sports Illustrated reports that ESPN's latest College Football Playoff (CFP) projection excludes USC entirely, giving the team only a 17 percent chance to be among the final 12 teams.
Analytical predictors favor several Big Ten opponents over USC, including the No. 12 UCLA Bruins (28 percent), Nebraska (21 percent), No. 4 Ohio State (77 percent), and No. 5 Indiana (88 percent). The road ahead remains difficult; ESPN's Power Football Index (FPI) gives Ohio State a 79 percent chance of winning their Week 9 matchup against USC and gives Indiana an 86 percent chance of victory in Week 10.
However, USC may find an advantage in the CFP Committee's updated approach to strength of schedule, which Sports Illustrated reports will place more emphasis on schedule strength per conference. USC entered the season with the fourth-hardest schedule in the Big Ten and the 19th-hardest nationally. This metric could serve as a tiebreaker if USC finishes with the same record as other conference rivals.