The State vs. The Market: France's War on Polymarket
AI-generated image · US National Wire
By targeting the infrastructure of prediction markets, the ANJ is attempting to shut down a growing shadow economy of political forecasting.
On the surface, France's latest regulatory strike against Polymarket looks like a standard gambling crackdown. But follow the money and the traffic, and a different picture emerges: a state struggling to maintain its grip on how political outcomes are monetized.
According to reporting from Engadget, the Autorité Nationale Des Jeux (ANJ)—France's independent regulatory body for licensed gambling and betting—has ordered internet service providers to block access to the Polymarket website. This escalation follows a November 2024 directive that attempted to geoblock financial transactions for French residents.
***Opinion:*** *The ANJ isn't just fighting 'illegal gambling'; it is fighting a loss of control. When the state regulates the betting markets, it controls the flow of capital and the legitimacy of the forecast. Polymarket represents a decentralized challenge to that monopoly.*
Despite the previous transaction ban, the platform's growth in France has been aggressive. Engadget reports that the ANJ tracked 578,751 visits from French residents in June alone, with 205,057 of those being unique visits. The fact that users are actively circumventing blocks suggests a high demand for the kind of decentralized political forecasting that Polymarket provides—a demand the state-sanctioned systems are failing to meet.
To stifle this growth, the ANJ is now targeting the promotional ecosystem. Engadget notes that anyone caught advertising unauthorized gambling or betting sites now faces potential fines of up to 100,000 euros (approximately $114,000). By attacking the marketing and the access points, the French government is attempting to starve the platform of new users.
France is not alone in this protectionist impulse. Engadget reports that Spain has similarly ordered blocks on both Polymarket and Kalshi while investigating potential violations of gambling laws. In the United States, the friction is equally high; Minnesota has passed a bill banning prediction markets, and other states are pursuing lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket.
Ultimately, these moves signal a global trend of state actors attempting to reclaim the narrative—and the revenue—of political prediction. For the ANJ, the goal isn't just legality; it's the elimination of a competitor that allows the public to bet on the state's stability outside of government-approved channels.