The Hospitality Hedge: Why FIFA is Eyeing a 2038 U.S. Return
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As linear TV rights premiums face volatility, FIFA is leveraging the American market's massive ticketing and hospitality scalability to stabilize its long-term revenue projections.
When analyzing the financial architecture of the World Cup, the traditional cornerstone has always been the broadcast rights deal. However, a shift in revenue composition is occurring that makes the United States an indispensable asset for FIFA. According to reporting from The Guardian, the governing body is actively encouraging a U.S. bid for the 2038 World Cup, driven by a realization that the American market can scale hospitality and ticketing revenue to a degree that offsets potential losses in other areas.
**The Revenue Pivot**
During a meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, FIFA President Gianni Infantino informed representatives of the organization's 211 member associations that revenue projections for the current four-year cycle have been revised upward. The projection has increased from $11bn to $15bn. The Guardian reports that the vast majority of this growth is attributed to an explosion in hospitality and ticketing revenue.
In a significant milestone for the organization's business model, a FIFA source disclosed to The Guardian that demand within the U.S. has been so aggressive that ticketing and hospitality sales have surpassed $5bn. For the first time in the tournament's history, this segment of the market is now worth more than the World Cup's TV rights. This shift is bolstered by the integration of secondary market resale models and dynamic pricing, both of which The Guardian notes are deeply embedded in U.S. consumer culture.
**The Linear Rights Gap**
While the hospitality numbers are record-breaking, FIFA is operating under the shadow of a perceived failure in its most recent U.S. media rights negotiation. The Guardian reports that Fox Sports was awarded the English-language TV rights for the 2026 tournament without a competitive bidding process. This was a precautionary measure by FIFA to avoid lawsuits following the shift of the Qatar 2022 tournament to a winter schedule, which created conflicts with the NBA and NFL seasons.
Because there was no competitive tension, Fox secured a relative bargain. The network paid $485m for the 2026 rights—the exact same figure paid for Qatar—despite the 2026 tournament featuring an additional 40 matches and the advantage of being played on home soil. The disparity between this deal and the broader U.S. sports landscape is stark; The Guardian notes that the NFL's domestic TV deal is worth $11bn annually, while the NBA brings in approximately $7bn.
Fox has capitalized on this valuation gap. Industry experts cited by The Guardian predict Fox will generate more than $1bn from TV advertisements, aided by the introduction of hydration breaks that increased the volume and value of ad spots.
**Strategic Hedging for 2038**
FIFA is now determined to recoup this lost income. While the 2026 deal was a non-competitive anomaly, the governing body is looking to ignite a bidding war for future cycles. The Guardian reports that ESPN and NBC are expected to bid for the 2030 tournament, and initial conversations have occurred with Netflix. Netflix has already demonstrated its commitment to the sport by acquiring American rights for the 2027 and 2031 Women's World Cups (the latter of which is hosted in the U.S.).
From a business perspective, the 2038 cycle represents a critical opportunity to maximize both the broadcast and the hospitality levers. By returning to the U.S., FIFA can leverage the proven $5bn+ scalability of American ticketing while simultaneously forcing a competitive auction among broadcasters who have seen the massive viewership numbers delivered by Fox.
**The Path to Approval**
Returning to the U.S. within 12 years of the 2026 event is permissible under FIFA's current statutes and confederation rotation policy. The Guardian notes that by distributing the 2030 World Cup across six countries (Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) and awarding the 2034 tournament to Saudi Arabia, a North American bid for 2038 is allowed.
However, the path is not without friction. The Guardian reports that Concacaf, the North American confederation, has expressed reservations about another U.S. bid, as it wishes to provide opportunities to other member nations. This is evidenced by the addition of Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Mexico to the 2031 Women's World Cup bid.
Despite these institutional reservations, the political and financial momentum is significant. U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that the U.S. must host again, stating, “Based on the numbers we will be requesting it again immediately.”
**Opinion: The New Playbook**
In my view, FIFA is no longer treating the World Cup as a sports event with attached sponsorships, but as a diversified portfolio of revenue streams. The 2026 cycle proved that the U.S. market is uniquely capable of absorbing high-cost, dynamic-priced hospitality packages at a scale that can insulate the organization from a lackluster TV deal. By targeting 2038, Infantino is not just seeking a venue; he is seeking a financial hedge. If linear TV premiums continue to erode or plateau, the ability to extract billions from the American corporate hospitality sector becomes the primary driver of FIFA's growth.
With Gianni Infantino expected to be re-elected for a fourth full term at next year's FIFA Congress in Morocco, the organization possesses the leadership stability to move quickly. Given that the 2034 host was announced in just 25 days, FIFA can likely secure a 2038 U.S. commitment on a timeline that maximizes its own leverage.