The Hospitality Hedge: Why FIFA is Engineering a 2038 U.S. Return

To the casual observer, the prospect of the World Cup returning to the United States in 2038 looks like a celebration of the sport's growth. To those reading the balance sheet, it looks like a desperate attempt to recoup lost capital.

As reported by The Guardian, FIFA is actively encouraging a U.S. bid for the 2038 tournament. While the rhetoric centers on the game, the mechanism is purely financial. The governing body is chasing a specific, high-margin revenue stream—hospitality and ticketing—that has fundamentally shifted the economics of the event.

**The Hospitality Pivot**

During a meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, FIFA President Gianni Infantino informed representatives from the organization's 211 member associations that revenue projections for the current four-year cycle have been revised upward from $11bn to $15bn. According to The Guardian, the vast majority of this growth is driven by an explosion in hospitality and ticketing revenue.

In the U.S. market specifically, a FIFA source disclosed that ticketing and hospitality sales have surpassed $5bn. For the first time in the history of the tournament, this segment of the market is now worth more than the World Cup’s television rights. This surge has been fueled by a U.S. consumer base with a "limitless appetite" for major events and a culture rooted in secondary market resale and dynamic pricing.

From a business perspective, the U.S. is no longer just a venue; it is a high-yield asset. A senior figure at one of FIFA's hospitality partners, quoted by The Guardian, noted that FIFA will want to return to the U.S. as quickly as possible to capitalize on these premiums.

**The Fox Sports Miscalculation**

While the hospitality numbers are a windfall, FIFA is nursing a significant wound in its broadcast rights portfolio. The Guardian reports that FIFA awarded the English-language TV rights for the 2026 tournament to Fox Sports without a competitive bidding process.

This lack of competition was a precautionary measure intended to avoid lawsuits following the decision to move the Qatar 2022 tournament to the winter, which created scheduling conflicts with the NBA and NFL. However, the resulting deal was a relative bargain for Fox. The network paid $485m for the 2026 rights—the exact same amount paid for Qatar—despite the 2026 tournament featuring an additional 40 matches and the advantage of being hosted on home soil.

To put this in perspective, the NFL's domestic TV deal generates $11bn annually, and the NBA brings in approximately $7bn. Fox has effectively capitalized on this discount; industry experts predict the network will earn over $1bn from TV advertisements, bolstered by the introduction of hydration breaks.

**The 2038 Strategy: Recouping the Loss**

FIFA is now determined to recoup this lost income. The strategy involves creating the "competitive tension" that was absent in the Fox deal. The Guardian reports that ESPN and NBC are expected to bid for the 2030 tournament, and initial conversations have occurred with Netflix. Netflix has already demonstrated its appetite for the sport by securing American rights for the 2027 and 2031 Women's World Cups (the latter of which is hosted in the U.S.).

By positioning a 2038 return in the U.S., FIFA can trigger another boom in both broadcast bidding and hospitality sales. The governing body has the flexibility to make this happen. By distributing the 2030 World Cup across six countries—Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—and awarding the 2034 tournament to Saudi Arabia, FIFA's confederation rotation policy permits a North American bid for 2038.

**Political and Institutional Friction**

Despite the financial incentive, the path is not without resistance. The Guardian notes that Concacaf, the North American confederation, has expressed reservations about another U.S. bid, as it wishes to provide opportunities to other member nations. This is evidenced by the addition of Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Mexico to the 2031 Women's World Cup bid.

However, the political will at the top remains aggressive. U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that the U.S. must host again "while I'm around," adding that based on the numbers, the U.S. will be requesting the tournament again immediately.

FIFA has shown a penchant for rapid, unilateral decision-making. The Guardian highlights the 2034 bidding process, which opened in October 2024 and resulted in Saudi Arabia being named host just 25 days later—a decision ratified via a virtual extraordinary general meeting two months later. With Gianni Infantino expected to be re-elected for a fourth full term at next year's FIFA Congress in Morocco, the organization is well-positioned to accelerate the 2038 timeline to secure the financial outcome it desires.

**Opinion: The Bottom Line**

In my view, the push for 2038 is a textbook risk-mitigation play. FIFA has realized that its traditional broadcast-heavy revenue model is volatile and subject to catastrophic miscalculations, as seen with the Fox deal. By pivoting toward the U.S. hospitality market, they are diversifying their income into a sector where the consumer is far more willing to overpay. The 2038 bid isn't about expanding the game; it's about hedging against the next broadcast rights cycle by locking in the world's most lucrative hospitality market.