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The Fifth-Year Gamble: How Portal Pivots are Redrawing the March Madness Map

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Nadia Brennercollege basketballAug 22AI
The Fifth-Year Gamble: How Portal Pivots are Redrawing the March Madness Map

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While the blue-bloods dominate the headlines, a wave of fifth-year seniors fighting eligibility battles is transforming mid-major contenders and high-major dark horses into legitimate threats.

### The New Spring Blueprint

For decades, the college basketball mantra has been that championships are won in April but built in the spring. However, as first reported by CBS Sports, that sentiment feels increasingly hollow in an era where the offseason seems to never truly end. We are witnessing a fundamental shift in roster construction, driven by a slew of fifth-year seniors who are brazenly challenging the NCAA for an extra year of eligibility.

This isn't just a matter of personnel changes; it is a legal battleground. In June, the NCAA implemented new age-based eligibility guidelines known as "five-in-five." Importantly, the NCAA decided that the Class of 2022 would not be grandfathered in for a fifth year of eligibility. This decision has sparked a wave of litigation, with hundreds of seniors involved in more than a dozen court cases across Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee, California, and Colorado. Despite these legal challenges, the NCAA has remained firm, leaving the fate of dozens of contenders in the hands of the judicial system.

### The Big 12: The Market Winner

While the legal cloud looms, some conferences are already positioning themselves to crash the party in March. According to CBS Sports, the Big 12 is emerging as a major winner in this fifth-year market. A series of court victories have cleared the path for veteran returns, benefiting a wide array of programs including Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and BYU.

Nowhere is this impact more evident than at BYU. Under head coach Kevin Young, the Cougars landed Jaxon Kohler, a transfer from Michigan State. Kohler, who averaged 8.9 rebounds and 12.6 points while shooting 39% from beyond the arc for a Michigan State team that earned a No. 3 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, provides a significant boost to the roster.

Kohler's path back to the hardwood was unconventional; he had signed an Exhibit 10 contract and played for the Utah Jazz's summer league team before winning a temporary restraining order against the NCAA. As noted by CBS Sports' Cameron Salerno, Kohler fills BYU's most desperate need: rebounding. Kohler is an elite presence on the glass, ranking in the 85th percentile for offensive rebounding and the 96th percentile for defensive rebounding.

Beyond the boards, Kohler provides the pick-and-pop capability necessary to open the paint for rim-pressure machine point guard Rob Wright. This addition allows Young to experiment with versatile lineups, ranging from a five-shooter set featuring Kohler, Wright, Tyler Betsey, Collin Chandler, and five-star freshman Bruce Branch, to a double-big look pairing Kohler with Polish big man Jakub Urbaniak or athletic forward Khadim Mboup. In the eyes of CBS Sports, Kohler elevates BYU from a mere tournament-caliber team to a true Big 12 contender.

### High-Stakes Gambles in the SEC

While the Big 12 has found stability through court wins, the SEC is playing a higher-variance game. CBS Sports reports that the SEC is second among high-majors with six committed fifth-year seniors. The most provocative strategy is unfolding at LSU under first-year coach Will Wade.

LSU has adopted a bold recruiting approach, signing players who may not even be eligible for the 2026-27 season. A prime example is the commitment of former UCLA guard Donovan Dent. Dent is regarded as one of the best passers in the sport and a top-tier senior fighting for that extra year. He would join former UCLA teammate Skyy Clark in Baton Rouge, provided the NCAA grants them eligibility.

As CBS Sports' Cameron Salerno observes, this strategy is binary: it will either be genius or a total backfire. While adding a player of Dent's caliber in late August is nearly unheard of, the risk is that LSU could be left with significant holes in its roster if the judicial system does not rule in the players' favor.

### The Veteran Nucleus at Oklahoma

Oklahoma is also leveraging the fifth-year market to build a dangerous postseason threat. According to CBS Sports' Isaac Trotter, Porter Moser has landed two projected Day One starters in Duke Brennan and BJ Edwards.

Brennan, arriving from Villanova, provides a physical presence at center. Last season, he averaged 10.3 rebounds and 12.4 points. While not viewed as an elite rim protector, Brennan is valued for his toughness, passing ability, and defensive positioning.

Complementing Brennan is BJ Edwards, a 6-foot-3 guard from SMU. Edwards is described as an excellent defender who provides rim pressure, shot-making, and creation. His absence was felt heavily during SMU's late-season collapse, making him a high-value addition for the Sooners. Together with returning forward Derrion Reid and star point guard Xzayvier Brown, Oklahoma has assembled a veteran nucleus that makes them a legitimate threat in the NCAA Tournament.

### The Nomad Effect

The volatility of the current portal era is perhaps best personified by AJ Storr. As reported by CBS Sports, Storr is joining UNLV after departing Ole Miss. In a testament to the fluidity of modern college basketball, Storr will be playing for his fifth different school in the last five years, continuing a journey that reflects the fragmented nature of current roster building.

Sources

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