The Danger of the Week 1 Rush: Don't Mistake a Fast Start for a Dynasty

The NFL is officially back, and with the return of the action comes the return of the overreaction. After a Week 1 slate that featured the highest-scoring opening game in league history, the temptation to draw definitive conclusions is high. But as history shows—such as the Raiders defeating the Patriots in a Week 1 matchup last year—early results are often fool's gold.

Case in point: the immediate chatter surrounding Lamar Jackson. As CBS Sports first reported, the narrative is already shifting toward Jackson challenging for another MVP award. On the surface, the evidence is compelling. Jackson posted 324 yards on 17-of-25 passing, averaging a staggering 13 yards per attempt. He accounted for two touchdowns—one through the air and one on the ground—and looked nearly untouchable on under-center, play-action plays, where he went 5-for-5 for 101 yards.

Much of this efficiency can be attributed to the tactical shifts introduced by offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, whose hiring by the Ravens was noted by CBS Sports as a key, if understated, move. The results were immediate; Jackson benefited from a variety of screens, quick passes, and play-action finds. One highlight included a 54-yard touchdown to Zay Flowers, who operated from the backfield—a positioning CBS Sports notes Flowers has never used before.

While CBS Sports labels the MVP trajectory as 'reality' based on the fact that Jackson has won the award during both previous offensive coordinator changes in Baltimore, we must be cautious. In a league defined by volatility, betting on a dynasty or a trophy based on a single Sunday is a gamble.

We see this same pattern of premature judgment across the league. CBS Sports notes that while DJ Moore looked like the NFL's best offseason addition in his Bills debut—recording 100 yards and a touchdown—it is too early to be definitive. Similarly, the Texans' defense is being questioned after allowing 36 points to Josh Allen and the Bills, yet that assessment is likely an overreaction given the aggressive style of the Houston unit and the rarity of Allen's pinpoint accuracy on specific plays.

Even the Chicago Bears are a study in contradiction. While Caleb Williams looked outstanding in a 59-37 win over the Panthers—throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns while adding 65 yards and two scores on the ground—the defense was a disaster. CBS Sports reports that the Bears' unit, hampered by injuries to Kyler Gordon and Coby Bryant, allowed Bryce Young to throw for 361 yards and struggled with a meager 21% pressure rate.

Whether it is the brilliance of Lamar Jackson or the offensive explosion of the Bears, one game is a snapshot, not a movie. The league is jumping the gun on Jackson, and while the Ravens look potent, the smartest move is to wait for more than one window of action before declaring a dynasty.