The Bullpen Buzzsaw: Why the Cubs are Doomed in San Diego
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Opinion: Ken Rosenthal is spot on—Chicago's offense is great, but they can't survive the Padres' home-field advantage and a dominant relief corps.
Listen, I love the grit the Chicago Cubs have shown all season. They've been a powerhouse, boasting one of the league's top offenses and a defense that's played at an elite level. But as we head into this best-of-three Wild Card rematch against the San Diego Padres, it's time for a reality check.
MLB insider Ken Rosenthal recently laid it out plain on the *Fair Territory with Ken Rosenthal* podcast, as first reported by Sports Illustrated: he doesn't see the Cubs surviving this. In my book, Rosenthal is right on the money.
When you look at the matchup, San Diego holds two massive trump cards that should keep Chicago fans awake at night: Petco Park and a bullpen that is, in Rosenthal's words, perhaps the most dominant aspect of any team in this entire postseason.
Let's talk about the venue first. San Diego isn't just comfortable at home; they're dangerous. According to reporting from Sports Illustrated, the Padres posted a 51-30 home record this year, putting them in a tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the fourth-best home record of 2026. Contrast that with their 40-41 mark on the road, and it's clear that Petco Park is a fortress. For a Cubs team trying to steal a series on the road, that's a steep hill to climb.
But the real nightmare for Chicago is the late innings. San Diego has the ability to effectively shorten the game. If the Padres get a lead, they have the luxury of turning the game over to the likes of Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon. When you're facing a relief crew that dominant, your margin for error vanishes. Even the wildcard addition of 33-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove—who hasn't seen a Major League mound in nearly two years—adds a layer of unpredictability to a San Diego roster that already feels overwhelming.
Chicago is going to lean heavily on presumptive National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong to spark something. The young star has the talent to lead the charge, but he's got a tough history in October; Sports Illustrated notes he went 5-for-27 with 12 strikeouts and no homers across eight playoff games in 2025.
Can a great offense and a stellar defense overcome a dominant bullpen and a fierce home-field advantage? In a short series, the odds are slim. The Cubs have played a tremendous season, but they're walking right into a buzzsaw in San Diego.