The Billion-Dollar Bleed: Stearns Has the Blueprint, But the Mets are Rotting From Within
OPINION: David Stearns has unearthed a core of young talent, but unless he fixes the catastrophic failures of his own making, the Mets are just flushing money down the East River.
Let’s be clear: this is an opinion piece. I’ve seen enough baseball to know when a team is building toward something and when they are simply burning money to keep the lights on at Citi Field. Right now, the New York Mets are doing the latter.
As first reported by CBS Sports, the Mets were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Monday following a loss to the Baltimore Orioles. For the second consecutive year, the franchise with the second-highest payroll in the sport will spend October on the couch. It is a staggering failure of execution, and while owner Steve Cohen has publicly backed President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, the results on the field are as bad as they get.
Stearns is a man with a blueprint. We saw it in Milwaukee. But in New York, that blueprint has been smudged by one of the worst offseasons an executive has endured in recent memory. According to CBS Sports, nearly every single move Stearns made last winter was a failure. Look at the ledger: Bo Bichette (3 years, $126M) and Devin Williams (3 years, $51M) remain on the roster, while Luke Weaver (2 years, $22M) has already been traded to the Pirates. Then you have Marcus Semien, who remains with the club after a trade from the Rangers, and Jorge Polanco, a free agent signing (2 years, $40M) who produced a -1.4 WAR. Meanwhile, Luis Robert Jr. was claimed on waivers by the Orioles.
The Polanco move was particularly egregious. CBS Sports notes that replacing franchise icon Pete Alonso—who demanded five years and $155 million—with Polanco was a "colossal error." Polanco had never played first base and had struggled to stay healthy and productive for more than five months over the previous three seasons. It was a move that was "too cute by half," and it cost manager Carlos Mendoza his job in June, though CBS Sports notes Mendoza didn't exactly cover himself in glory over the last two years.
But here is the crux of the problem: the Mets are currently a house divided between a disastrous veteran payroll and a glimmer of genuine, homegrown hope.
On one side, you have the "last generation" of homegrown talent—Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos—who have failed to evolve. CBS Sports suggests that Baty and Vientos may have already played their way out of Queens. On the other side, the Mets have accidentally stumbled upon four bona fide building blocks. Nolan McLean has emerged as a frontline starter ranking in the top 25 in WAR. Carson Benge has been one of the league's best all-around players since May 1. A.J. Ewing looks like a rock-solid center fielder, and Christian Scott has returned from Tommy John surgery with the high-end stuff that made him a prospect. Throw in lefty Zac Thornton, and you have a cheap, effective rotation that actually gives the team a future.
There is also a spark in the bullpen. After a trade deadline exodus that saw Weaver, Huascar Brazobán, A.J. Minter, and Brooks Raley leave, the Mets unearthed low-cost arms like Daniel Duarte, Nate Lavender, and Jonathan Pintaro.
So, we have a paradox. Stearns has the young core—the McLean, Benge, Ewing, and Scott quartet—that could anchor a contender. He even has the potential to explore long-term extensions with them, as CBS Sports suggests he might, mirroring his Milwaukee history. But you cannot build a skyscraper on a swamp. The veteran failures—the Bichette contract, the Polanco disaster, the inability to manage the payroll efficiently—are the swamp.
Even with a strong second half (going 29-24 before elimination), the Mets are still a team that fails to meet even the most modest expectations. Steve Cohen says Stearns is "reflective and adaptable" and will play out the final two years of his five-year contract. That’s fine for Cohen, but for the fans, it’s a recipe for more heartbreak.
If Stearns doesn't stop the bleeding in the clubhouse and the front office now, these young stars won't be the foundation of a dynasty; they'll be the only bright spots in another billion-dollar shipwreck. The blueprint is there, but the execution is a disaster. It's time to stop being "cute" and start being competent.