The Baz Gamble: Is Baltimore Paying Ace Prices for a Replacement Arm?
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The Orioles gave up a king's ransom for Shane Baz, but his first season in Baltimore suggests he's more of an inning eater than a rotation anchor.
Listen, I've seen enough arms come and go to know when a guy looks the part. Shane Baz fits the bill. He's big, strong, and brings the velocity. He's also proven he can stay on the mound, not missing a single start over the last two seasons. But in this game, looking like an ace and actually being one are two different things.
As Sports Illustrated first reported, Baltimore baseball boss Mike Elias paid an extreme prospect price to acquire Baz from the Rays, giving up four top chips, including potential franchise catcher Caden Bodine. Elias didn't stop there; he also signed the 27-year-old righty to a rare contract extension. When you pay that kind of premium, you aren't looking for a guy to just hold down a spot in the rotation. You're looking for a difference-maker.
Instead, Baz spent his first season in Baltimore as the epitome of a pedestrian starter. Sports Illustrated notes that Baz posted an ERA+ of 99—the definition of average. While he managed to limit some of the longballs and showed improvement from late May onward, the underlying numbers are a cause for concern. He isn't missing enough bats, ranking in the 20th percentile for whiffs and the 28th percentile in batting average.
**OPINION:** If Baz is just eating innings, the O's paid a premium for a guy who is essentially a glorified replacement player. At this rate, he's not much more than what Dean Kremer was in previous years.
The struggle is rooted in the arsenal. Sports Illustrated reports that Baz is in the bottom 18th percentile for breaking ball run value and the bottom 5% for offspeed run value. He's also getting hammered by left-handed hitters, who put up a .278/.348/.437 slash line and a .789 OPS against him. Baz gave up 11 home runs to lefties, who saw 155 more plate appearances than right-handed hitters. Until he develops a reliable change-up or another weapon to neutralize lefties, opposing lineups will continue to stack against him.
Baltimore currently sits in a 19-game deficit in the AL East, trailing the Rays. To chip away at that, they need quality, not just quantity. If Elias builds a rotation where Baz and Kyle Bradish—who is returning from Tommy John surgery—are the headliners, he's playing a dangerous game. As Sports Illustrated points out, the Rays generally know what they are doing when they move on from a young, cheap starter with years of control. If Baz can't evolve beyond being an average arm, the price Baltimore paid will look less like a bold move and more like a costly mistake.