The AP Poll is Living in the Past: Five Overrated Frauds Waiting for the Bubble to Burst
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Beau Tatum argues that the current Top 25 is rewarding name recognition over actual tape, highlighting five teams that barely survived Week 1.
Let's be honest: the AP Top 25 is often less of a meritocracy and more of a popularity contest. We see it every year, but as Sports Illustrated first reported, the current state of the rankings is particularly egregious. We are rewarding brand equity and preseason hype while ignoring the actual tape from Week 1.
While it is technically true that no ranked team lost to an unranked opponent in the opening weekend, the margins were terrifyingly slim for several programs. As a columnist who values performance over pedigree, I'm calling it now: there are five frauds currently occupying spots they haven't earned. If these teams don't tighten up, the bubble isn't just going to leak—it's going to burst.
**No. 6 Oregon Ducks**
Oregon entered their home opener against Boise State as a massive 24.5-point favorite. In any rational world, that suggests a blowout. Instead, as reported by Sports Illustrated, the Broncos were the more poised team for much of the contest, actually holding a lead at halftime.
Quarterback Dante Moore did put up the numbers—378 yards and three touchdowns on 28-of-37 passing—but the Ducks were essentially scraping for a victory, managing a 20-10 effort over the final two quarters. They only secured the win for good after Moore hit a 62-yard touchdown pass shortly after Boise State had tied the game with a field goal. Oregon fell four spots in the polls, and rightly so. They have national championship aspirations, but their performance against an unranked opponent suggests they are currently a paper tiger.
**No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders**
Texas Tech is a different kind of fraud: the 'unimpressive winner.' They beat Abilene Christian 33-10, but Sports Illustrated notes that the Red Raiders failed to make a splash despite an offseason defined by drama.
When you are favored by more than six touchdowns and you only manage to put three of those on the board, you aren't dominating; you're stagnating. Quarterback Will Hammond threw for 298 yards and a score, but he also threw a second-quarter interception, and the offense sputtered in the red zone, settling for field goals on three separate occasions. While the defense was stout—holding the Wildcats to 194 total yards and just 2.6 yards per carry—the lack of offensive efficiency is a red flag. They slipped one spot in the rankings, but they should have slipped further.
**No. 17 SMU Mustangs**
SMU is perhaps the most delusional entry on this list because they actually moved up in the rankings despite a performance that screamed 'first game of the year.' Yes, Rhett Lashlee's squad secured a 27-24 road win over Florida State, but Sports Illustrated reports that the victory was far from comfortable.
The Mustangs were sloppy in the extreme, committing six penalties and turning the ball over four times—three of which occurred in Florida State territory. They survived because they outgained the Seminoles by over 200 yards and converted their third-down opportunities. But you cannot build a sustainable season on that kind of carelessness. If SMU doesn't figure out how to hold onto the football before they travel to Louisville in two weeks, their ascent in the polls will be short-lived.
**No. 19 Washington Huskies**
Washington's 24-10 victory over Washington State looks fine on a scoreboard, but the tape tells a story of an offense in crisis. According to Sports Illustrated, the Huskies produced points on only two of their first nine drives.
Even more alarming was a possession where Washington had a 1st and 10 from the Washington State 13-yard line, only to regress all the way to a 4th and 33, eventually settling for a field goal. Last year, Washington dismantled the Cougars in a 59-24 rout; this year, they were favored by over three touchdowns and struggled to put the game away, seeing the deficit shrink to 17-10 late in the game. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and a returning veteran core need to find a rhythm quickly, or their current ranking will be viewed as a gift.
**No. 22 Houston Cougars**
Finally, we have Houston. The Cougars escaped their home opener with a 33-20 win over Oregon State, but Sports Illustrated describes the victory as 'unsettling.'
On paper, Houston should be a juggernaut; they are one of the most experienced teams in the FBS, returning 12 combined starters. Yet, they nearly let a game slip away after holding a 26-7 lead in the third quarter. When a team with that much veteran experience struggles to close out an unranked opponent at home, it's a sign that the team is overvalued.
These five programs are coasting on reputation. The AP poll is treating them like the teams they were in the brochures, not the teams they were on the field in Week 1. The correction is coming.