Statistical Inevitability or Hot Seat? Analyzing the 2026 Coaching Outlook
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CBS Sports experts identify a trio of power-conference coaches facing the highest possible job insecurity entering the new season.
As the 2026 college football season approaches, a stark divide has emerged between stable coaching tenures and those facing immediate termination. According to a poll of 10 CBS Sports experts, three power-conference coaches received a unanimous 5.0 hot-seat rating—the highest possible score on a 0-to-5 scale: Florida State's Mike Norvell, Wisconsin's Luke Fickell, and Baylor's Dave Aranda.
Other coaches facing significant pressure include Maryland's Mike Locksley (4.9), South Carolina's Shane Beamer (4.3), and North Carolina's Bill Belichick (4.1). CBS Sports notes that these ratings often correlate with job losses; last season, five of the eight coaches who earned a rating of 4.1 or above were dismissed, among them Hugh Freeze, Sam Pittman, and Mike Gundy.
However, the data suggests that high-pressure ratings are not always a death sentence. Arizona's Brent Brennan saw his rating drop from 4.22 in 2025 to 1.80 in 2026 after a nine-win season. Similarly, Louisiana Tech's Sonny Cumbie entered last season with a 5.0 rating but lowered his 2026 mark to 3.2 after leading the Bulldogs to an Independence Bowl victory and a fourth-place Conference USA finish.
Conversely, low ratings provide no guarantee of security. CBS Sports reports that Penn State fired James Franklin despite a 1.33 preseason rating, and Brian Kelly was dismissed midseason after holding a 3.33 rating.