November Hot Stove Expected to Burn Bright Despite Lockout Threat

While a looming lockout typically suggests a quiet November, as CBS Sports reports, MLB clubs are likely to be active before the collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. History supports this; in November 2021, teams spent over $1.7 billion on free agents, including the Texas Rangers' $560 million commitment to Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jon Gray.

Urgency is driven by several factors. The Athletic reports that MLB has declined to amend the posting agreement with Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league. Consequently, players posted Nov. 1 face a hard Dec. 1 deadline because contracts cannot be signed during a lockout. This affects three top-50 free agents: Seibu Lions pitcher Kaima Taira, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Hiromi Itoh, and Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato.

Furthermore, ESPN reports that Tarik Skubal, the market's top free agent, is expected to sign before the lockout. This could trigger a domino effect among big spenders like the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and Toronto Blue Jays, who may pivot to secondary targets like Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta once Skubal is off the board.

Teams may also view November as the final opportunity to spend freely before new economic rules are implemented. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told Sportsnet that any new system would likely include a timeframe for adjustment, suggesting that potential salary caps would be phased in rather than causing immediate action.