Model Projections Clash With Week 1 Outbursts
AI-generated image · US National Wire
SportsLine's simulation data suggests fading recent breakout performers in favor of statistical anomalies for Week 2.
Following explosive Week 1 performances, fantasy managers often overreact when setting lineups, as CBS Sports first reported. According to CBS Sports, players such as Tyler Shough, who recorded 410 yards and three touchdowns, and Christian Watson, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Monangai—all of whom surpassed 124 scrimmage yards—are now viewed as potential targets for Week 2.
However, the SportsLine computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, suggests a different approach based on projected volume and matchup data. For example, the model is fading New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson. Despite being the TE8 last year and recording three catches for 54 yards in the opener, Johnson is not projected in the top 15 for Week 2. CBS Sports reports this is due to the Baltimore Ravens' defensive history; in 2025, Baltimore allowed fewer touchdowns to tight ends than any other team, and no player at the position exceeded 60 yards against them last year. This trend continued in Week 1, when the Ravens held Indianapolis' Tyler Warren, the previous year's TE4, to a career-low 13 yards.
Conversely, the model is bullish on Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, ranking him as a top 10 fantasy quarterback despite a Week 1 performance featuring three turnovers and zero passing touchdowns. CBS Sports notes that Mayfield faces a Cleveland Browns defense that allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw four touchdowns in Week 1 and registered only two QB hits and one sack.