Liability Gap: BetMGM's Heisman Exposure on Drew Mestemaker
AI-generated image · US National Wire
A massive shift in odds for the Oklahoma State transfer has left one major sportsbook uniquely vulnerable as the 2026 college football season approaches.
From a risk management perspective, the numbers surrounding Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker are flashing a warning sign for the industry. As CBS Sports first reported, BetMGM currently holds more exposure on the 20-year-old winning the Heisman Trophy than any other player in the nation.
The liability stems from a dramatic shift in pricing. Mestemaker opened as a +10000 longshot, but his odds have since shortened to +5000. CBS Sports reports that no player nationally has seen a more significant shortening of odds than Mestemaker. While he does not currently lead in tickets (2.2%) or handle (1.9%), the gap between his opening price and current market value has created a precarious position for BetMGM.
This volatility comes as Mestemaker enters the Power 4 level as one of the most decorated transfers in the portal. Per CBS Sports, he was the No. 4 overall player in the transfer portal, trailing only Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt (now at LSU), Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman (now at Texas), and Colorado offensive tackle Jordan Seaton (now at LSU). Mestemaker follows head coach Eric Morris and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Sean Brophy from North Texas, where he was the 2025 American Conference Offensive Player of the Year and winner of the Burlsworth Trophy.
On paper, the statistical profile of the 6-foot-4 quarterback is an outlier. CBS Sports notes that as a redshirt freshman, Mestemaker led the FBS in both passing yards (4,379) and touchdowns (34). He also topped the national charts for completions of at least 10, 20, 50, 60, and 70 yards. Under Morris, North Texas led the nation in points per game (45.07) and yards per game (512.4).
However, the industry's exposure is complicated by the projected quality of the Oklahoma State program. The Cowboys are coming off a school-worst 1-11 campaign in 2025, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts them for 5.1 total wins—the lowest of any Big 12 school. Their projected win total currently sits at 6.5, with 3.5 projected Big 12 victories.
In my opinion, the sportsbook's current positioning is a gamble on the team's inability to succeed. While CBS Sports suggests it is highly doubtful Mestemaker wins the award because the Cowboys are expected to struggle, the sheer scale of the odds movement suggests that sharp money is already identifying a value gap. If Mestemaker replicates his North Texas production in Stillwater, BetMGM is sitting on a liability that is far more concentrated than the general betting public's current handle suggests.