Exhibition Smoke and Mirrors: Which Early Upsets Are Actually Real?
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As the calendar turns toward the regular season, Nadia Brenner parses the exhibition results to see which 'surprises' hold water and which are just preseason noise.
In the world of college basketball exhibitions, the gap between a 'statement win' and a meaningless scrimmage is often thinner than a baseline drive. As we look toward the real season, a wave of exhibition results first analyzed by CBS Sports offers a mixed bag of genuine growth and misleading optics.
**The Baylor Case Study** Baylor serves as the primary warning against overreacting to early results. Despite being picked 10th in the Big 12 preseason poll (and seventh in the CBS Sports preview), the Bears recently knocked off No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Illinois. While CBS Sports notes that Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo is playing at an elite level, the context matters: Illinois was missing All-American David Mirkovic, and Baylor's frontcourt remains thin. The verdict? Don't crown them a top-20 lock until after the Player's Era in Las Vegas on Dec. 1.
**Freshman Breakouts and Guard Play** When looking for actual translation to the regular season, Kentucky's victory over No. 19 Texas Tech highlighted a genuine emergence. CBS Sports reports that freshman guard Mason Williams, who wasn't a top-100 recruit, has already become a vital piece of the Kentucky puzzle, contributing 14 points and key winning plays. However, Kentucky's ceiling remains tied to their point guard stability; while Furman transfer Alex Wilkins showed brilliance, Washington transfer Zoom Diallo struggled with consistency.
Meanwhile, Arkansas' win over No. 15 Gonzaga revealed a significant shift in identity. According to CBS Sports, the Razorbacks' point-of-attack defense has seen a massive upgrade thanks to athletic freshmen Jordan Smith Jr. and Abdou Toure. This defensive pressure forced Gonzaga guards Nathan De Sousa and Javon Bennett into a combined 3-for-25 shooting performance.
**The 'Fake' Factors** Not every exhibition result is a reliable indicator of future success. Texas Tech's struggle against Kentucky was exacerbated by a lack of size, as coach Grant McCasland relied on a small-ball lineup. CBS Sports notes that once JT Toppin is healthy and Jamichael Stillwell is cleared, the Tech frontcourt will look entirely different.
Similarly, Gonzaga's offensive struggles were skewed by the absence of sophomore Davis Fogle and Chauncey Wiggins. Despite the loss, the Zags remain dangerous with a strong interior presence featuring Braden Huff, Massamba Diop, and newly-cleared Izan Almansa, alongside a healthy Houston transfer Isiah Harwell.
**The Heavyweights** At the top of the bracket, Duke's 90-84 win over No. 17 Kansas reinforced the idea that their starting five may be the best in the nation. CBS Sports highlights Patrick Ngongba as a potential candidate for the best center in America after he put up 28 points and 10 rebounds. The Blue Devils' starting unit—featuring Cayden Boozer, John Blackwell, Dame Sarr, and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje—combines size, defense, and shooting in a way that feels very real.