Cubs Are Playing a Dangerous Game With a Thin Rotation

Let's get the obvious out of the way: the Chicago Cubs are in a position most teams would kill for. According to CBS Sports, their magic number is 1, and they are currently tied for the National League's top wild card spot at 87-70 with the Phillies and Padres. Because Chicago holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over both, they are the favorites to secure the No. 4 seed and the home playoff series that comes with it.

But as a baseball lifer, I'm telling you right now: don't let the standings fool you. The Cubs are playing a dangerous game. They are coasting toward a postseason berth without a true horse in the stable to eat the innings when the pressure cranks up in October.

Look at the man taking the mound tonight against the Miami Marlins: Kevin Gausman. The Cubs targeted Gausman at the trade deadline specifically for big-game moments, but the results since he arrived from Toronto have been underwhelming. CBS Sports reports that across eight starts, Gausman has posted a 5.04 ERA and a 4-2 record. Even Gausman has admitted to the media that his workload from last year—where he pitched through the World Series with the Blue Jays—might be weighing on him.

While Sports Illustrated notes Gausman is coming off a strong outing against Atlanta, the bigger picture is worrying. We are seeing a veteran pitcher who is struggling to find his old form, paired with a bullpen that Sports Illustrated describes as a "serious problem." If the relief pitching doesn't get a fast fix, it doesn't matter if you're the No. 4 seed; you're just a fancy ticket to an early flight home.

To make matters worse, the roster is bleeding in other areas. Star third baseman Alex Bregman is sidelined after taking a foul-ball line-drive to the face on Sunday. CBS Sports confirms Bregman suffered fractures and may miss the remainder of the regular season, though he has expressed a desire to try to play tonight. While he doesn't need surgery, his potential absence leaves a void in the lineup that Michael Conforto and Pedro Ramírez simply cannot fill, according to Sports Illustrated.

So, here is the reality: the Cubs are flirting with the top of the wild card race, but they are doing it with a depleted lineup and a pitching staff that lacks a definitive anchor. They are relying on a trade acquisition in Gausman who is fighting fatigue and a bullpen that looked "lost" during Tuesday's collapse against Miami.

Winning the tiebreaker is great for the regular season. But in the Wild Card round, you don't win on tiebreakers; you win with innings and impact. Right now, the Cubs are betting that they can stumble into the playoffs and hope the pieces fall into place. In my book, that's not a strategy—it's a gamble. And given the state of this rotation, the odds aren't in their favor.