Analyst Predicts Conference Model Collapse Following 24-Team Playoff Expansion

College football analyst Josh Pate has labeled the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 24 teams as "garbage," predicting as Sports Illustrated first reported that the sport's conference model could collapse within the next five years.

Speaking on Josh Pate's College Football Show, Pate argued that the expansion—finalized via a five-year deal with ESPN worth nearly $1.7 billion—does not achieve its goal of improving the season. As evidence that a larger field will not encourage tougher scheduling, Pate pointed to reporting from Brett McMurphy via On3 that the Florida Gators canceled a home-and-home series with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish scheduled for 2031 and 2032.

Pate further claimed the new format harms Group of Six conferences by guaranteeing only one spot to the highest-ranked team from those leagues. He also noted that requiring power conference teams to play 10 games against power conference opponents will likely eliminate the nonconference games those schools use to build resumes.

During a media teleconference, CFP Executive Director Rich Clark admitted that a significant number of fans were against the expansion, but he noted the organization chose to proceed with the plan regardless. According to Sports Illustrated, Pate believes the decision was driven by coaches through the American Football Coaches Association, as well as athletic directors, presidents, and conference commissioners.

Pate suggests the shift toward a 24-team field signals the end of the current conference structure, as new platforms and money may lead programs to seek full independence similar to Notre Dame. He noted that ESPN and Fox currently sign media rights deals with conferences rather than individual schools, a model he believes is on the verge of failure.